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Vandana Hari

May 17, 2018

Brent creeps towards $80 early Thu after three-day rally – Vandana Hari

1. Crude futures were moderately higher early Thursday in Asia, after three straight sessions of gains driven principally by rising concerns over Iranian and Venezuelan crude supplies and supported by the latest monthly data showing OECD oil stocks had lost all their surplus to the five-year average at the end of April. Weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration Wednesday was also bullish, showing an across-the-board drawdown in commercial inventories in the country.

2. Leaders of 28 European Union nations meeting in Bulgaria Wednesday agreed a “united EU approach” to saving the Iran nuclear deal as long as Tehran honours it too but did not reach any concrete decisions. Meanwhile, concerns continue to grow among European companies that they would be penalised by US secondary sanctions for dealing with Iran, regardless of their own government’s support for the Islamic Republic. French giant Total said it will wind down its operations to develop Phase 11 of Iran’s South Pars gas field by November 4 unless it secures a US sanctions waiver.

3. OECD oil inventories dipped 1 million barrels below their five-year average at the end of April, the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly oil market report Wednesday. The IEA also revised down its annual global oil demand growth estimate for 2018 to 1.4 million b/d from 1.5 million b/d, citing the impact of higher oil prices. The latter exerted bearish pressure on crude futures during intraday trading, but that was soon overcome by supply concerns amid a thinning global oil inventory cushion.

4. The EIA reported a draw of 1.4 million barrels in US commercial crude stocks for the week ended May 11, reversing the previous day’s pressure on crude prices from the American Petroleum Institute data showing an unexpectedly large build of nearly 4.9 million barrels in crude stocks. Total US oil inventories had fallen to 16 million barrels below their five-year average at the end of April, compared with 229 million barrels above that level in January 2017, the EIA said. The latest US crude export figure also jumped out of the EIA data, hitting a historic high of nearly 2.6 million b/d in the week to May 11.

5. A senior official of the National Iranian Oil Company, who had accompanied Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif to Beijing this week, met executives of Chinese state-owned oil giants in Beijing to persuade them to maintain their crude import volumes from his country but did not obtain any guarantees, Reuters reported. The companies were said to have told the official that they would fall in line with government directives on the matter. China is Iran’s largest crude buyer, and bought an average of 655,000 b/d in the first quarter from the OPEC producer, according to Reuters data.

6. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s upcoming presidential elections Sunday, May 20, have revived talk of US sanctions against the southern neighbour’s oil sector as they are expected to return incumbent Nicolas Maduro for a second term in office. The US imported 619,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude on average in 2017, according to EIA data, though the figure slumped to 424,000 b/d in the first two months of this year. A US ban on Venezuelan crude imports will starve PDVSA of an important remaining market that fetches it much-needed hard currency. A majority of Venezuelan crude goes to Russia and China to repay multi-billion-dollar loans advanced by the two countries under oil-for-loan deals. US oil sanctions against Venezuela could also jeopardise operations of PDVSA’s US subsidiary Citgo, which owns about 758,000 b/d of refining capacity and a large fuel distribution and retail network.

Data In Sight

Vandana Hari

Founder, Vanda Insights
Singapore

Crude InSight – May 17, 2018
Crude InSight – May 16, 2018
Crude InSight – May 15, 2018
Crude InSight – May 14, 2018
Crude InSight – May 11, 2018
Crude InSight – May 10, 2018
Crude InSight – May 9, 2018
Crude InSight – May 8, 2018
Crude InSight – May 7, 2018
Crude InSight – May 4, 2018
Crude InSight – May 3, 2018
Crude InSight – May 2, 2018
Crude InSight – April 30, 2018
Crude InSight – April 27, 2018
Crude InSight – April 26, 2018
Crude InSight – April 25, 2018
Crude InSight – April 24, 2018
Crude InSight – April 23, 2018
Crude InSight – April 20, 2018
Crude InSight – April 19, 2018
Crude InSight – April 18, 2018
Crude InSight – April 17, 2018
Crude InSight – April 16, 2018
Crude InSight – April 13, 2018
Crude InSight – April 12, 2018
Crude InSight – April 11, 2018
Crude InSight – April 10, 2018
Crude InSight – April 9, 2018
Crude InSight – March 29, 2018
Crude InSight – March 28, 2018
Crude InSight – March 27, 2018
Crude InSight – March 26, 2018
Crude InSight – March 23, 2018
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Crude InSight – March 21, 2018
Crude InSight – March 20, 2018
Crude InSight – March 19, 2018
Crude InSight – March 16, 2018
Crude InSight – March 15, 2018
Crude InSight – March 14, 2018
Crude InSight – March 13, 2018
Crude InSight – March 12, 2018
Crude InSight – March 9, 2018
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Crude InSight – March 6, 2018
Crude InSight – March 5, 2018
Crude InSight – March 2, 2018
Crude InSight – March 1, 2018
Crude InSight – February 28, 2018
Crude InSight – February 27, 2018
Crude InSight – February 23, 2018
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Crude InSight – February 21, 2018
Crude InSight – February 20, 2018
Crude InSight – February 19, 2018
Crude InSight – February 16, 2018
Crude InSight – February 15, 2018
Crude InSight – February 14, 2018
Crude InSight – February 13, 2018
Crude InSight – February 12, 2018
Crude InSight – February 11, 2018
Crude InSight – February 9, 2018
Crude InSight – February 8, 2018
Crude InSight – February 7, 2018
Crude InSight – February 6, 2018
Crude InSight – February 5, 2018
Crude InSight – February 2, 2018
Crude InSight – February 1, 2018
Crude InSight – January 31, 2018
Crude InSight – January 30, 2018
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Crude InSight – January 24, 2018
Crude InSight – January 23, 2018
Crude InSight – January 22, 2018
Crude InSight – January 19, 2018
Crude InSight – January 18, 2018
Crude InSight – January 17, 2018
Crude InSight – January 16, 2018
Crude InSight – January 15, 2018
Crude InSight – January 11, 2018
Crude InSight – January 10, 2018
Crude InSight – January 9, 2018
Crude InSight – January 8, 2018
Crude InSight – January 5, 2018
Crude InSight – January 4, 2018
Crude InSight – January 3, 2018
Crude InSight – January 2, 2018
Crude InSight – December 13, 2017
Crude InSight – December 12, 2017
Crude InSight – December 11, 2017
Crude InSight – December 8, 2017
Crude InSight – December 7, 2017
Crude InSight – December 6, 2017
Crude InSight – December 5, 2017
Crude InSight – December 4, 2017
Crude InSight – December 1, 2017
Crude InSight – November 30, 2017
Crude InSight – November 29, 2017
Bulls & Bears: 27 November-1 December 2017
Crude InSight – November 28, 2017
Crude InSight – November 27, 2017
Crude InSight – November 24, 2017
Crude InSight – November 23, 2017
Crude InSight – November 22, 2017
Crude InSight – November 21, 2017
Crude InSight – November 20, 2017
Crude InSight – November 17, 2017
Crude InSight – November 16, 2017
Crude InSight – November 15, 2017
Crude InSight – November 14, 2017
Crude InSight – November 13, 2017
Crude InSight – November 10, 2017
Crude InSight – November 9, 2017
Crude InSight – November 8, 2017
Crude InSight – November 7, 2017
Crude InSight – November 6, 2017
Crude InSight – November 3, 2017
Crude InSight – November 2, 2017
Crude InSight – November 1, 2017
Crude InSight – October 31, 2017
Crude InSight – October 30, 2017
Crude InSight – October 27, 2017
Crude InSight – October 26, 2017
Crude InSight – October 24, 2017
Crude InSight – October 23, 2017
Crude InSight – October 20, 2017
Crude InSight – October 19, 2017
Crude InSight – October 18, 2017
Crude InSight – October 17, 2017
Crude InSight – October 16, 2017
Crude InSight – October 13, 2017
Crude InSight – October 12, 2017
Crude InSight – October 11, 2017
Crude InSight – October 10, 2017
Crude InSight – October 9, 2017
Crude InSight – October 6, 2017
Crude InSight – October 5, 2017
Crude InSight – October 4, 2017
Crude InSight – October 3, 2017
Crude InSight – October 2, 2017
Crude InSight – September 29, 2017
Crude InSight – September 28, 2017
Crude InSight – September 25, 2017
Crude InSight – September 22, 2017
Crude InSight – September 21, 2017
Crude InSight – September 20, 2017
Crude InSight – September 19, 2017
Crude InSight – September 18, 2017
Crude InSight – September 15, 2017
Crude InSight – September 14, 2017
Crude InSight – September 13, 2017
Crude InSight – September 12, 2017
Crude InSight – September 11, 2017
Crude InSight – September 8, 2017
Crude InSight – September 7, 2017
Crude InSight – September 6, 2017
Crude InSight – September 5, 2017
Crude InSight – September 4, 2017
Crude InSight – September 1, 2017
Crude InSight – August 31, 2017
Crude InSight – August 30, 2017
Crude InSight – August 29, 2017
Crude InSight – August 28, 2017
Crude InSight – August 25, 2017
Crude InSight – August 24, 2017
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Crude InSight – August 18, 2017
Crude InSight – August 16, 2017
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Crude InSight – August 10, 2017
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Crude InSight – July 31, 2017
Crude InSight – July 28, 2017
Crude InSight – July 27, 2017
Crude InSight – July 26, 2017
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Crude InSight – July 24, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – July 8, 2017
Crude InSight – July 6, 2017
Crude InSight – July 5, 2017
Crude InSight – July 4, 2017
Crude InSight – July 3, 2017
Crude InSight – June 30, 2017
Crude InSight – June 29, 2017
Crude InSight – June 28, 2017
Crude InSight – June 27, 2017
Crude InSight – June 23, 2017
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Crude InSight – June 19, 2017
Crude InSight – June 16, 2017
Crude InSight – June 15, 2017
Crude InSight – June 14, 2017
Crude InSight – June 13, 2017
Crude InSight – June 12, 2017
Crude InSight – June 9, 2017
Crude InSight – June 8, 2017
Crude InSight – June 6, 2017
Crude InSight – June 5, 2017
Crude InSight – June 2, 2017
Crude InSight – June 1, 2017
Crude InSight – May 31, 2017
Crude InSight – May 30, 2017
Crude InSight – May 29, 2017
Crude InSight – May 22, 2017
Crude InSight – May 19, 2017
Crude InSight – May 18, 2017
Crude InSight – May 17, 2017
Crude InSight – May 16, 2017
Crude InSight – May 15, 2017
Crude InSight – May 12, 2017
Crude InSight – May 11, 2017
Crude InSight – May 10, 2017
Crude InSight – May 9, 2017
Crude InSight – May 8, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – May 5, 2017
Crude InSight – May 5, 2017
Crude InSight – May 4, 2017
Crude InSight – May 3, 2017
Crude InSight – May 2, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – April 28, 2017
Crude InSight – April 28, 2017
Crude InSight – April 27, 2017
Crude InSight – April 26, 2017
Crude InSight – April 25, 2017
Crude InSight – April 24, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – April 21, 2017
Crude InSight – April 21, 2017
Crude InSight – April 20, 2017
Crude InSight – April 19, 2017
Crude InSight – April 18, 2017
Crude InSight – April 17, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – April 14, 2017
Crude InSight – April 13, 2017
Crude InSight – April 12, 2017
Crude InSight – April 11, 2017
Crude InSight – April 10, 2017
Crude InSight – April 3, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – March 31, 2017
Crude InSight – March 31, 2017
Crude InSight – March 30, 2017
Crude InSight – March 29, 2017
Crude InSight – March 28, 2017
Crude InSight – March 27, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – March 24, 2017
Crude InSight – March 24, 2017
Crude InSight – March 23, 2017
Crude InSight – March 22, 2017
Crude InSight – March 21, 2017
Crude InSight – March 20, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – March 17, 2017
Crude InSight – March 17, 2017
Crude InSight – March 16, 2017
Crude InSight – March 15, 2017
Crude InSight – March 14, 2017
Crude InSight – March 13, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – March 10, 2017
Crude InSight – March 9, 2017
Crude InSight – March 7, 2017
Crude InSight – March 6, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – March 3, 2017
Crude InSight – March 3, 2017
Crude InSight – March 2, 2017
Crude InSight – March 1, 2017
Crude InSight – February 28, 2017
Crude InSight – February 27, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – February 24, 2017
Crude InSight – February 24, 2017
Crude InSight – February 23, 2017
Crude InSight – February 22, 2017
Crude InSight – February 21, 2017
Crude InSight – February 9, 2017
Crude InSight – February 8, 2017
Crude InSight – February 7, 2017
Crude InSight – February 6, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – February 3, 2017
Crude InSight – February 3, 2017
Crude InSight – February 2, 2017
Crude InSight – February 1, 2017
Crude InSight – January 31, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – January 27, 2017
Crude InSight – January 27, 2017
Crude InSight – January 26, 2017
Crude InSight – January 25, 2017
Crude InSight – January 24, 2017
Crude InSight – January 23, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – January 20, 2017
Crude InSight – January 17, 2017
Crude InSight – January 16, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – January 13, 2017
Crude InSight – January 13, 2017
Crude InSight – January 12, 2017
Crude InSight – January 9, 2017
VIEWS ON NEWS: CRUDE COMPASS, Special Issue – January 6, 2017
Crude InSight – January 6, 2017
Crude InSight – January 5, 2017
Crude InSight – January 4, 2017
Crude InSight – January 3, 2017
Crude InSight – December 15, 2016
Crude InSight – December 14, 2016
Crude InSight – December 13, 2016
Crude InSight – December 12, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – December 9, 2016
Crude InSight – December 9, 2016
Crude InSight – December 8, 2016
Crude InSight – December 7, 2016
Crude InSight – December 6, 2016
Crude InSight – December 5, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – December 2, 2016
Crude InSight – December 2, 2016
Crude InSight – December 1, 2016
Crude InSight – November 30, 2016
Crude InSight – November 29, 2016
Crude InSight – November 28, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – November 25, 2016
Crude InSight – November 25, 2016
Crude InSight – November 24, 2016
Crude InSight – November 23, 2016
Crude InSight – November 22, 2016
Crude InSight – November 21, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – November 18, 2016
Crude InSight – November 18, 2016
Crude InSight – November 17, 2016
Crude InSight – November 16, 2016
Crude InSight – November 15, 2016
Crude InSight – November 14, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – November 11, 2016
Crude InSight – November 11, 2016
Crude InSight – November 10, 2016
Crude InSight – November 9, 2016
Crude InSight – November 8, 2016
Crude InSight – November 7, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – November 4, 2016
Crude InSight – November 4, 2016
Crude InSight – November 3, 2016
Crude InSight – November 2, 2016
Crude InSight – November 1, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – October 28, 2016
Crude InSight – October 28, 2016
Crude InSight – October 27, 2016
Crude InSight – October 26, 2016
Crude InSight – October 25, 2016
Crude InSight – October 24, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – October 21, 2016
Crude InSight – October 21, 2016
Crude InSight – October 20, 2016
Crude InSight – October 19, 2016
Crude InSight – October 18, 2016
Crude InSight – October 17, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – October 14, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – October 07, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – September 23, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – September 16, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – September 09, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – September 02, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – August 26, 2016