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Vandana Hari

February 23, 2018

Crude surrenders gains early Friday as financial markets waver again – Vandana Hari

1. Crude futures were weaker Friday morning in Europe versus Thursday’s settle, unable to sustain the modest gains made earlier during the Asian trading session. Oil market sentiment was once again tracking the stock markets, which were in the red in Europe early Friday.

2. Brent and WTI had settled 1.5-1.6% higher Thursday, buoyed by both fundamentals and the financial markets. The US Energy Information Administration reported a surprise decline of nearly 1.62 million barrels in commercial crude inventories in the country for the week to February 16. It also reported a larger-than-expected draw of 2.42 million barrels in distillate inventories. Gasoline stocks rose by a marginal 261,000 barrels last week, the EIA reported. Overall, the data was bullish for the oil market.

3. US weekly production came in at 10.27 million b/d in the week to February 16, almost flat with the previous week. However, US crude exports jumped over the 2-million-b/d mark, for the second time ever in the country’s history, according to EIA data.

4. The US dollar declined at Thursday’s close after rallying for nearly five successive days, contributing to the lift in crude prices. The US bellwether stock market indexes S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher Thursday, after a mixed performance by the European equity markets earlier in the day.

5. European markets were mostly weaker Friday morning despite gains across Asian stocks earlier in the day, as investors focused on corporate earnings reports on the last day of the week. Overall, this week is likely to end with a consolidation in the global stock markets following three weeks of heightened volatility, triggered by fears over accelerating inflation and interest rate spikes starting February 2.

6. The benchmark US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, which represent the market’s expectations of inflation, edged lower at Thursday’s market close to 2.25% and 2.92% respectively. They had hit their highest levels since the February 2 start of the global financial markets turmoil Wednesday, following the release of the minutes of the January meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee. The minutes showed that members of the policy-making body of the US central bank saw increased “upside risk” to US economic growth in 2018 compared with their previous meeting, in December. The market interpreted the minutes as hawkish for Fed interest rate hikes through this year.

Data In Sight

Vandana Hari

Founder, Vanda Insights
Singapore

Crude InSight – February 23, 2018
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Bulls & Bears: 27 November-1 December 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – July 8, 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – May 5, 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – April 28, 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – April 21, 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – April 14, 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – March 31, 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – March 24, 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – March 17, 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – March 10, 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – February 24, 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – February 3, 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – January 27, 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – January 20, 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – January 13, 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: CRUDE COMPASS, Special Issue – January 6, 2017
Crude InSight – January 6, 2017
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – December 9, 2016
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – December 2, 2016
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – November 25, 2016
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – November 18, 2016
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – November 11, 2016
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – November 4, 2016
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – October 28, 2016
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – October 21, 2016
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VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – October 14, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – October 07, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – September 23, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – September 16, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – September 09, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – September 02, 2016
VIEWS ON NEWS: OIL THIS WEEK – August 26, 2016