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India’s bulk inflation, measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), rose for the fourth consecutive month to 2.13 percent in February following a substantial increase in the prices of non-food articles, even though vegetable prices eased, data compiled by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed. The February WPI print marked a notable increase from 1.81 percent recorded in January 2026, but was lower than the 2.45 percent registered in February 2025.
A statement from the Ministry of Commerce & Industry said, “The annual rate of inflation based on the All India Wholesale Price Index (WPI) number is 2.13 percent (provisional) for the month of February 2026 versus February 2025. The positive rate of inflation in February 2026 is primarily due to an increase in prices of other manufacturing, manufacture of basic metals, non-food articles, food articles and textiles, etc. The month-on-month change in WPI for February 2026 stood at 0.25 percent compared to January 2026.”
Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, commented, “WPI inflation, which is still on the old base of 2011-12, witnessed an increase of 2.13 percent in February. Though lower than the 2.5 percent recorded last year, it has been on a rising trend since December. This number is likely to rise faster from March onwards once the effects of higher oil prices get embedded in the index. For February 2026, inflation in the fuel products category stood at (-)3.8 percent, with the three major components—petrol, diesel and LPG—recording negative numbers.”
The WPI inflation number may not be central to policy formulation, but it reflects the impact of crude oil at around US$ 100 a barrel more effectively than the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation measure. The impact on manufactured products will be important, as this will form the basis for the transmission of higher costs to products that eventually feed into the CPI.
Food Index
Food products recorded an increase of 2.2 percent, driven mainly by higher prices in the fruits, vegetables, meat and eggs segments. Cereals and pulses registered negative price growth, which tempered the overall increase. Within non-food products, oilseeds accounted for high inflation of over 25 percent. Prices are likely to remain elevated until the rabi mustard crop arrives after April. However, prices are expected to moderate further as the rabi harvest of pulses such as chana and cereals like wheat enters the market.
The Food Index, consisting of food articles from the primary articles group and ‘food products’ from the manufactured products group, declined from 194.2 in January 2026 to 192.9 in February 2026. The year-on-year inflation rate based on the WPI Food Index increased to 1.85 percent in February 2026.
For December 2025, the final Wholesale Price Index and inflation rate for ‘All Commodities’ (Base: 2011-12=100) stood at 157.2 and 0.96 percent respectively, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
Primary articles
Primary articles carry a cumulative weight of 22.62 percent in the index. The index for this major group declined by 0.52 percent, from 193.9 (provisional) in January 2026 to 192.9 (provisional) in February 2026. Prices of food articles fell by 1.33 percent and minerals by 1.21 percent in February 2026 compared with January 2026. However, prices of crude petroleum and natural gas increased by 4.17 percent, while non-food articles rose by 0.83 percent during the same period.
Similarly, fuel and power carry a total weight of 13.15 percent in the index. The index for this major group increased by 1.17 percent, rising from 145.9 (provisional) in January 2026 to 147.6 (provisional) in February 2026. Prices of mineral oils increased by 2.05 percent in February 2026 compared with January 2026. However, electricity prices declined by 0.27 percent during the same period.
Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist at Care Ratings, said, “WPI inflation edged up to 2.1 percent in February, compared with 1.8 percent in January, driven primarily by rising inflation in the primary goods basket. The increase in primary goods inflation was largely attributable to an uptick in food prices and double-digit inflation in mineral products, particularly basic metals such as copper, aluminium, zinc and nickel. Food inflation firmed up as the favourable base effect waned. However, the overall rise in WPI inflation was partly offset by continued deflation in the fuel and power category. It is also important to note that the February inflation data does not yet reflect the potential impact of the ongoing conflict in West Asia, which has resulted in higher energy prices.”
Manufactured articles
Data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry further shows that manufactured products carry an overall weight of 64.23 percent in the WPI. Inflation in manufactured goods stood at 2.9 percent, driven mainly by metal products, textiles and tobacco. Apart from the base effect, the impact of crude oil prices is expected to become more pronounced in the coming months.
The index for this major group increased by 0.47 percent, rising from 147.5 (provisional) in January 2026 to 148.2 (provisional) in February 2026. Out of the 22 National Industrial Classification (NIC) two-digit groups for manufactured products, 16 groups witnessed an increase in prices while five groups recorded a decline.
Some of the important groups that registered a month-on-month increase in prices included other manufacturing; manufacture of food products; textiles; manufacture of electrical equipment; and chemicals and chemical products. Meanwhile, groups that witnessed a decline in prices included manufacture of basic metals; computer, electronic and optical products; fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment; wood and products of wood and cork; and leather and related products in February 2026 compared with January 2026.
Outlook
Looking ahead, elevated energy prices are likely to exert upward pressure on WPI inflation as input costs rise. The impact of higher energy prices is expected to be more pronounced on WPI compared with CPI, given the higher weight of petroleum, natural gas and mineral oil in the WPI basket (10.4 percent) relative to the CPI basket (4.8 percent).
In addition to energy price risks, the increased probability of an El Niño weather event in FY2026–27 could adversely affect food inflation. Considering these risks, it will be important to closely monitor geopolitical developments in West Asia as well as weather-related developments. For FY2025–26, WPI inflation is expected to average 0.6 percent. Under the baseline scenario, assuming Brent crude prices average bet.
DILIP KUMAR JHA
Editor
dilip.jha@polymerupdate.com
